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Monday, January 02, 2006

7 predictions for 06 

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The Iraq war will grind on with no rest or good news. The insurgency will not end, just get smarter. Pressure will continue to build to remove troops, but a dip in troop levels will bring the insurgency forward again. This will cause us to re-deploy infantry from Germany and Korea. By years end, we will still have at least 150,000 troops in theatre.

More war is coming in 2006. No matter what government is formed in Iraq, it will bifurcate into regional and religious intercine rivalries and no effective central government will operate without us. Iraq will be Beirut, 1985. We will ignite not one, but two civil wars. One will take place in Al Anbar province between Sunnis and Shiites. The other will be between Sunnis and Kurds in Kirkuk and Mosul and possibly Turkish forces will be engaged as well, and expect the oil terminals to be hit and taken down.

No relief will come to the Gulf Coast. The destruction will dip in and out of the public discourse until around the election when Democrats will film large devastated areas that have received no relief. It will further demonstrate the bankrupt administration that can get nothing right.

Democratss will continue to embarrass Democrats. A few fighters and aslowly organized message will begin to pop through the clutter. Dems will come within one seat of the Senate. Dems gains seats in the House, but won’t win it. Then the indictments will force a series of special elections and after the mid-terms, the Dems will take the House by like a seat.

GOP bails on Delay. Gets jail because the GOP will have to prove again that they are Respect the Law party. By the time this happens, Delay will be radioactive and they will have to throw him to the dogs.

There will be an increase in confidence felt in polls. Not in the administration, but in the sense that somehow, we will all muddle through this. A sort of American DNA type of optimism.

Scandalgate will consume much of the political will of the neo-cons/Rethuglicans. Right wing legislation will only be passed with procedural tricks and/or razor thin majorities.
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